Oil prices are on track for a second consecutive weekly decline as traders brace for a likely supply hike from OPEC+ amid growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $61.3 per barrel on Friday, slightly recovering but still facing weekly losses (-0.4%). Brent crude was last seen at $63.66, down 0.9% for the week. The downward trend is driven by expectations that a subgroup of OPEC+ will announce another production increase at Saturday’s meeting, potentially the third in a row. The decision comes at a time when global oil supply already exceeds demand by 2.2 million barrels per day, raising concerns about oversupply and further price declines.
JPMorgan analysts expect prices to stay range-bound short-term but gradually fall into the high $50s by year-end.
Adding to bearish sentiment, legal uncertainty surrounds U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. A federal trade court initially blocked key duties, calling them illegal, but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them. These legal twists have kept markets jittery, especially amid broader fears of a recession fueled by the U.S.-China trade war.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, and gasoline stockpiles also declined, signaling some strength in demand. However, global oil demand growth remains below expectations, tracking at just 400,000 barrels per day—about 250,000 bpd short of forecasts—despite a brief rebound during the Memorial Day travel surge.