OPEC+ producers plan to approve a substantial production increase for September, completing both the reversal of voluntary cuts by eight members and the UAE’s shift to a higher quota, according to five sources familiar with the matter.
The group, which supplies about half the world’s oil, has been gradually unwinding cuts of 2.17 million barrels per day (bpd) that began in April. Output rose by 138,000 bpd that month, followed by monthly hikes of 411,000 bpd through July, and a 548,000 bpd boost approved for August. In early August, OPEC+ is expected to greenlight another rise of roughly 550,000 bpd.
This increase would restore all 2.17 million bpd in cuts from Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria. It also finalizes an additional 300,000 bpd hike for the UAE, which has long argued its production quota was too low given heavy investment in capacity exceeding 4 million bpd.
Initially, the UAE’s higher quota was to be phased in by September 2025, but delays pushed it to 2026. However, recent accelerated output hikes have effectively returned the timeline to the original schedule, allowing the UAE to ramp up faster.
If approved, the September increase will bring total additional production since April to 2.47 million bpd, about 2.5% of global demand. Saudi Arabia’s output would approach 10 million bpd, while the UAE would pump around 3.375 million bpd.
OPEC+ still maintains separate cuts totaling 3.66 million bpd, which remain in place until the end of 2026.