China’s exports rose by 5.8% year-on-year in June, surpassing analysts’ expectations (+5%) and marking a strong performance driven by increased shipments to Southeast Asia and the EU, even as exports to the U.S. continued to decline. The growth came during a temporary tariff truce with the U.S., giving Chinese exporters a window to accelerate outbound shipments ahead of an August deadline for a broader trade deal.
Imports grew by 1.1%—their first increase this year—though still below forecasts (+1.3%). Overall, China recorded a trade surplus of nearly $586 billion in the first half of 2025, up 35% from a year earlier.
U.S.-bound exports fell over 16% in June but showed a slower decline than in May, reflecting easing tensions after a tentative agreement in Switzerland and follow-up talks in London. Both countries are now racing to finalize a durable trade agreement by August 12. Meanwhile, China ramped up exports to ASEAN nations (+16.8%) and the EU (+7.6%), while trade with the U.S. shrank amid President Trump’s 145% tariffs and trans-shipment crackdown targeting Chinese goods routed through Vietnam.
China’s pivot toward non-U.S. markets and advanced manufacturing sectors, like robotics, has helped cushion geopolitical risks. However, analysts warn that without further stimulus, global trade friction could weigh on exports by late 2025.
Beijing is set to release second-quarter GDP data this week, with growth expected around 5.1%, just above the government’s annual target, buoyed by strong external demand despite weak domestic consumption and a sluggish property market.