| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | June | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | June | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | June | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Trade balance unadjusted | May | 11.1 | 13 | 16.2 |
GBP strengthened against most of its major rivals in the European session on Wednesday as investors digested the hotter-than-anticipated UK June inflation report.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the UK’s сonsumer price index (CPI) increased 3.6% YoY in June, accelerating from 3.4% YoY in the previous month. This marked the highest annual inflation rate since January 2024 (4.0%) and surprised economists who had predicted an unchanged reading. A sharp rise in food prices (4.4%) drove an uptick in headline inflation last month.
Meanwhile, the core inflation quickened to 3.7% YoY from 3.5% YoY in May. Economists had predicted 3.5% YoY. Services inflation, closely watched by the Bank of England, remained unchanged at 4.7%, also above economists’ estimates.
Today’s release prompted markets to trim expectations for further policy easing by the BoE following a potential 25-basis-point rate reduction at its August 7 meeting. According to Bloomberg, markets now see 49 basis points of easing by the end of 2025, down from 53 basis points before the publication of the June CPI report.