| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (MoM) | June | -0.2% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 06:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (YoY) | June | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, but is set to record a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by strong economic data suggesting the Federal Reserve may delay further interest rate cuts. Recent figures showed robust retail sales and a drop in jobless claims, reinforcing confidence in the U.S. economy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.12% to 98.53, but rose 0.7% since the beginning of the week.
Despite year-to-date losses, the dollar rebounded from concerns over President Trump’s unpredictable fiscal policy and criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Markets were briefly shaken by speculation that Trump might fire Powell, though the president later denied the claim.
While Fed Governor Christopher Waller voiced support for a rate cut later this month, most policymakers appear in no rush to act. Futures pricing suggests just a 62% chance of a cut in September, keeping investor focus on economic data and political developments in the U.S.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains under pressure ahead of Sunday’s upper house elections, where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition risks losing its majority. This political uncertainty, combined with deadlock trade negotiations with the U.S., has pushed the dollar close to a 3.5-month high against the yen. Since the beginning of the week, the yen has fallen by 0.95%.
Japan’s economy faces additional headwinds as inflation cools and growth slows. Core inflation fell to 3.3% in June, in line with expectations, while GDP contracted 0.2% in Q1. Rice prices - once surging at record rates - have slightly eased after government intervention, though food and energy costs remain elevated. Concerns are mounting that a prolonged yen depreciation and looming U.S. tariffs—especially a 25% levy on Japanese automobiles set for August 1—could further strain Japan’s economy. Analysts warn that an election loss by the ruling coalition could spark market volatility and delay progress on a U.S.-Japan trade deal.