The Conference
Board reported on Monday that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell
0.3 per cent m-o-m in June to 98.8 (2016=100), following an upwardly revised
flat m-o-m performance (from -0.1
per cent m-o-m) in May.
Economists had forecast
the indicator to drop 0.2 per
cent m-o-m.
The report also
showed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.3 per cent m-o-m to 115.1 in June after a downwardly revised flat
m-o-m performance (from +0.1 per cent m-o-m) in the previous
month. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. held steady at 119.9, following an
unrevised 0.4 per cent m-o-m advance in
May.
Commenting on
the latest data, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle
Indicators at the Conference Board, noted that the stock price rally was the
main support of the LEI in June but it was not enough to offset still very low
consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third
consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance. She,
however, added that the Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although the
U.S. economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to
2024. “Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of
tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher
prices,” Zabinska-La Monica said.