China’s exports rose 8.1% year-on-year in April, outperforming expectations (+1.9%) despite growing trade tensions with the U.S. The unexpected strength was driven by a rush of overseas demand—particularly from manufacturers in Southeast Asia and Europe—eager to secure Chinese materials before harsh U.S. tariffs take full effect. At the same time, imports fell only 0.2% year-on-year, compared with the economists' forecast of a 5.9% decline.
Shipments to the U.S. plummeted 21% as new duties topping 100% kicked in, while exports to ASEAN nations jumped over 20% and rose 8% to the European Union. China's overall trade surplus decreased to $96.18 billion from $102.64 billion in March, though its surplus with the U.S. shrank to $20.5 billion.
The U.S.-China trade conflict has already disrupted supply chains and container volumes, with U.S.-China shipping traffic reportedly falling 30–40%. Still, global trade beyond the U.S.-China corridor remains relatively stable—for now.
Negotiators from both countries are meeting in Switzerland this weekend, aiming to defuse tensions. Washington is reportedly considering a phased tariff reduction, with an initial target of bringing duties below 60% if China reciprocates.
Analysts warn that unless tariffs are reduced soon, trade flows could weaken significantly in the coming months. China's exporters, already grappling with weak domestic demand and a struggling property sector, are depending on foreign orders and policy stimulus to maintain growth.