| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | RBA Meeting's Minutes | | | | |
| 01:45 | China | Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI | May | 50.4 | 50.6 | 48.3 |
| 06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | May | 0% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | May | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
During today's Asian trading, the U.S. dollar rose slightly against major currencies, but remained near a 6-week low, pressured by signs of growing economic weakness linked to President Trump's prolonged trade war.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.11% to 98.79. New U.S. factory order and employment data expected this week may offer further evidence of how trade disputes are affecting the economy. Analysts are watching closely to see if the numbers reflect deeper underlying problems caused by trade volatility and strained global supply chains. Starting Wednesday, tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are set to double to 50%, coinciding with the deadline for countries to submit proposals in trade talks.
While the dollar got a temporary lift after progress in trade talks with the EU and a court ruling that paused some tariffs, those gains were short-lived. A higher court later reinstated the duties, and the Trump administration signaled it has other legal paths to enforce them if needed.
Tensions with China are also in focus. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said over the weekend that Trump and President Xi may speak soon to address trade issues. However, China’s Commerce Ministry pushed back on U.S. claims that Beijing violated trade agreements, fueling further uncertainty. Adding to the pressure, concerns about U.S. fiscal health are growing.
The euro dipped 0.15% after briefly touching a six-week high. Investors are also focused on the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decision and economic outlook later this week. According to forecasts, the ECB will reduce the deposit rate by 25 basis points, to 2%. If this happens, the overall decline will be 200 basis points since the start of the policy easing cycle in June 2024. Recent data from the eurozone has been mixed, but experts generally believe that, amid some signs of easing inflationary pressures and global uncertainty affecting business sentiment and potentially slowing the region's growth, the ECB has not yet completed its rate cut cycle. However, given that there are some difficulties in getting inflation back to the 2% target, the baseline scenario assumes a slowdown in the economy rather than a significant recession. Taking into account that the ECB rates are now close to a neutral level, experts believe that the rate cut cycle may end in the third quarter. The ECB may cut rates by another 25 bps at meetings in June and September, bringing the deposit rate to 1.75%.