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04.06.2025

European session review: EUR little changed ahead of tomorrow’s ECB rate decision

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:55GermanyServices PMIMay4947.247.1
08:00EurozoneServices PMIMay50.148.949.7
08:30United KingdomPurchasing Manager Index ServicesMay4950.250.9

EUR traded flat against most of the other major currencies in the European session on Wednesday as investors continued to monitor developments around trade talks between the U.S. and the European Union while preparing for the announcement of the European Central Bank’s rate decision on Thursday.

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Wednesday that he had a productive and constructive discussion with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. “We're advancing in the right direction at pace - and staying in close contact to maintain the momentum,” he added.

The talks were held after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase the tariff rate on steel imports to 50%, intensifying pressure on global partners.

On May 23, Trump criticised the stalled negotiations with the EU, warning of a direct 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1. However, after a discussion with European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen, the White House extended the deadline, moving the potential tariff imposition date to July 9.

The ECB’s two-day policy meeting kicks off today. Yesterday’s cooler-than-predicted Eurozone flash inflation data cemented the case for another 25-basis point rate cut by the ECB at the June meeting. 

Investors will focus on the policymakers’ interest-rate plans. Currently, only one more rate decrease is seen this year beyond June (likely in the autumn).


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