The World Bank published its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report, which revealed a downward revision to its global growth forecasts for 2025, given a substantial rise in trade barriers and the pervasive effects of an uncertain global policy environment.
The Bank now sees the global economy expanding 2.3% this year, down from 2.7% in its January projections. "This would mark the slowest rate of global growth since 2008, aside from outright global recessions," the World Bank noted.
Nearly 70% of all economies faced a downgrade from the World Bank’s projections in January, including:
- the United States - to 1.4% in 2025, down from 2.3% in January projections;
- Euro area - to 0.7%, down from 1.0%;
- Japan - to 0.7%, down from 1.2%;
- and six emerging market regions.
Meanwhile, China's growth forecast was left unchanged at 4.5% as fiscal support was assumed to offset the impact of trade tensions with the U.S.
In 2026 and 2027, the World Bank said, a tepid recovery is expected, leaving global output materially below January projections, at 2.4% and 2.6%, respectively.