Oil prices fell on Friday but remained on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, as fears of imminent U.S. military action against Iran eased. Brent crude dropped by 2.2% to $77.10 per barrel, while WTI умеренно выросла (+0.5%, до $73.87 per barrel). Despite the dip, Brent is still up around 4% for the week.
The decline came after the White House signaled that President Donald Trump would decide within two weeks whether to intervene in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt noted a “substantial chance of negotiations” with Iran, helping calm markets after a volatile week that saw Brent swing by $8 and options at one stage more bullish than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Earlier, prices surged nearly 3% following Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran's retaliatory missile attacks. While oil infrastructure has not been targeted so far, analysts warn that any escalation - especially involving Iran’s key export routes - could push prices toward $100 per barrel.
Concerns remain over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil flows. Iran has previously threatened to block the strait in response to Western pressure, prompting commercial ships to steer clear of its waters. For now, crude shipments continue, but markets remain on edge.
According to analysts, the current geopolitical risk premium is around $10 per barrel. Any direct disruption to oil exports or shipping could drastically alter that outlook.