| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (MoM) | May | -0.6% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| 06:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (YoY) | May | -0.9% | -1.2% | -1.2% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | PSNB, bln | May | -20.05 | -17.1 | -17.69 |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (MoM) | May | 1.3% | -0.5% | -2.7% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (YoY) | May | 5% | 1.7% | -1.3% |
GBP traded mixed against most of the other major currencies in the European session on Friday as investors weighed the latest developments around the Middle East conflict and the UK’s retail sales data for May.
The pound rose versus USD, SEK and CHF, fell versus EUR, and changed little versus JPY, AUD and CAD.
U.S. President Donald Trump signalled yesterday that he will give Iran a two-week time span for negotiations before deciding on a potential strike against it. According to House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump assumes “a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future” and pledges to “make my decision of whether or not to go within the next two weeks.”
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that retail sales in Britain declined by 2.7% MoM in May after an upwardly revised 1.3% MoM rise in April. This marked the biggest monthly drop in sales volumes since December 2023 (-3.5% MoM) and was worse than economists’ expectations (-0.5% MoM). On a YoY basis, retail sales fell 1.3% in May, recording the first annual drop since January (-0.1% YoY) and the steepest since April 2024 (-2.6% YoY).
A sharp decline in retail sales added to concerns that the UK economy could be struggling in the second quarter. As a reminder, the UK’s GDP report showed a contraction in the economy in April.
Meanwhile, the GfK’s report revealed that consumer confidence in the UK improved for a second straight month in June. The corresponding indicator fell to -18 this month from -20 in May. This was the highest reading since December 2024 (-17) and better than economists' prediction (-20).