Bitcoin (BTC) declined
by 0.1% to $114,170 this week, dropping below its primary upside target range
of $117,000–$127,000, a signal of weakness at a critical moment. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took an aggressively hawkish stance
last week, signalling expectations of rising inflation and no readiness to cut
interest rates. However, this view
was soon undermined by a weak July U.S. labour market report, which sent the
S&P 500 benchmark down 2.9% to 6,211 points and dragged BTC along with it. The cryptocurrency briefly touched $111,855 on August 3, its lowest
level since July 10, nearly hitting the key support zone at $107,000–$110,000
before managing a rebound.
Attention has now shifted to a potential new
phase of trade escalation. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced his
intention to end the war in Ukraine, setting a ceasefire deadline for August 8.
If Russia does not comply, he plans to impose 100% tariffs on countries
importing Russian oil, primarily targeting China and India. During the last
trade dispute in March–April, BTC fell to $74,464. With investors fearing a
repeat scenario, there is a risk that renewed U.S.-China trade tensions could
push Bitcoin below its current support and toward the $100,000 level.
Investor caution is evident in the data. Last week, large investors purchased only
$229.0 million worth of shares in Bitcoin ETFs, including IBIT from BlackRock,
FBTC from Fidelity, and GBTC from Grayscale, a third consecutive weekly
decline, following $2.94 billion and $410.0 million in the two previous weeks. Outflows have now reached $400.6 million this week, highlighting
falling momentum.
A tariff decision could be made even before
Friday, as U.S. special envoy Stephen Witkoff is already in Moscow, and
President Trump is scheduled to speak Wednesday evening. Any sign of progress
could quickly push BTC back into the $117,000–$127,000 range, but in the
absence of such news, downside risks are mounting.
Adding to market anxiety, Google Trends now
shows search interest in altcoins surpassing that of Bitcoin. The last time
this occurred was in November 2024. Over the following two months, BTC rose
about 10.0%, formed a peak, and then entered a 31.0% correction in February and
March 2025. If a similar pattern plays out, the crypto market may be in the
final phase of its current bullish wave. This doesn’t guarantee an immediate
30.0% drop, but it suggests that Bitcoin could retest its all-time highs
several times, possibly rising toward the extreme target of $155,000–$165,000
in the coming months before a major correction unfolds.